A sprint stage but the wind could gust.Baston day: Tadej Pogaar had decided to win the stage and later said hed targetted the win for some time, this was no breakfast decision. It wasnt visible at first and while Lidl-Trek raced for the intermediate sprint they split the field with Pogaar caught out and even closing the gap in person. Its notable how Lidl-Trek are all in for Pedersen, or at least the likes of Quinn Simmons and Mathias Vacek are parking their ambitions for now. Once Pedersen had won the sprint the breakaway attempts started again but UAE kept them on the proverbial tight leash.Movistars Javier Romo survived the longest but he was caught at the foot of the Puy Mary climb by the UAE combine harvester. Richard Carapaz attacked on this climb and began to pull out a lead, taking almost minute by the top of the climb.By now it felt like the only question left was where on the Col de Pertus would Tadej Pogaar attack? The answer was about 1,250m before the top. But a lot more was happening. It was noticeable that nobody tried to follow Pogaar, if he stands up on the pedals nobody else moves. But he went after the UAE team was used up including Isaac del Toro was being dropped and Davide Piganzoli was setting the pace instead, perhaps helpful for Pogaar but also to keep the UAE riders at bay.On the approach to Le Lioran Pogaar was away but nervously looking back a lot while Jonas Vingegaard did the most work. Remco Evenepoel started to wilt, paying he said for the irregular work in the group but he never gave up, clawed his way back and then won the sprint for second place with Paul Seixas coming in third and Vingegaard paid for his chase and lost a few seconds in the final metres.Seixas said that it was a day for the strongest, he meant a subtle difference to the Pyrenean stage which selected for the best climbers. It was also after the rest day so add a pinch of salt to any extrapolations, for example if you think Del Toro is in trouble it might just be a bad Tuesday.It was also day for revenge. If the stage had finished in a nearby ski resort like Superbesse or Laguiole theres every chance the breakaway would have won. But Pogaar was smarting from his defeat in Le Lioran in 2024. We know he is out to win as many different races as possible, now we also see he finds added motivation from avenging defeats and especially schooling Vingegaard.A footnote to say Christian Prudhomme stopped en route to take part in the naming of the Pailherols village square after him. He regularly holidays there in the summer. Its 98% anecdotal but notable that posterity is becoming a thing for him, and he doesnt downplay talk of retirement anymore. If you want a front seat at the Tour with unlimited wine, a vacancy for the top job could be open soon.The Route: 161.3km and 1,400m of vertical gain. There are a lot of open roads today past freshly harvested cereal fields. Theres not much else to describe. The last marked climb of the day is a straight wide road, the kind where a truck driver probably has to shift gears but thats it.The map matters because the defining feature could be the wind. The difficult thing is different models predict different situations.The Finish: Nevers has its cobbled streets, cathedral and quays alongside the Loire but the finish is on the edge of town along with few features to warn about. Theres a level-crossing at the flamme rouge but presumably the rail company knows better than to run services after 5pm and itll just rattle some wheels.The Contenders: Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) has two wins and the French saying of never two without three comes to mind, an easy headline if he wins. But he spent most of the previous day chasing, including alone for a while so thats a factor to think of.Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) doesnt have the legs and if youre thinking this, its what Mathieu van der Poel is saying, from his post-victory interview on Sunday but added he hopes things will turn around. Yes hes come up short but were talking fourth or fifth, not 45th.Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) and Biniam Girmay (NSN) are the two other obvious picks.Once again to cite more names for the win is hard as the likes of Max Kanter (XDS-Astana), Sren Wrenskjold (Uno-X) or Milan Fretin (Cofidis) have to find a way past these four, eminently possible but just not likely.MerlierGirmay, Kooij, PhilipsenWeather: 32C and a strong chance of thunderstorms later on. The wind should blow from the NW meaning a headwind for much of the stage but a crosswind in moments.Normally the wind will blow at 15-20km/h which is insufficient to split things but crucially it could gust to 40km/h or more. But pick your wind model as ECMWF, GFS and ICON differ for the gusts and even the direction with less than 24 hours to go.TV: KM0 is at 2.05pm and the finish is forecast for 5.30pm CEST.The post Tour de France Stage 11 Preview first appeared on The Inner Ring.