Who is going to win the Giro dItalia? The answer today feels obvious, almost certain although plenty can happen in the next three weeks. The harder questions are how might Tadej Pogaar win and who else is going to finish on the podium?Route reminderYou can see all the stages on one page here. This is not as mountainous as usual and there two time trial stages totalling 70km. If its a gentler Giro, its relative as there are still three weeks and tough mountain stages, especially in the third week.The ContendersTadej Pogaar is everyones pick. Hes finished no lower than third in a grand tour and the few riders who can challenge him directly are not here. Just look at the recent Volta a Catalunya where he ran away with the race, likewise Lige-Bastogne-Lige. Hes more than capable in the time trials and the sterrato stage is no worry for the Strade Bianche winner.If Pogaar seems certain to win then remember in 2019 Simon Yates promised he was better than the rest and got sacked in the third week; Geraint Thomass bid buckled because of a bidon in 2020; in 2022 few predicted Jai Hindleys triumph and last year Remco Evenepoel was DNF. The Giro supplies surprise although this is a race preview rather than mysticism so we wont go too far with speculation about Covid or errant dogs. Today, in a straight sporting contest, Pogaar is far ahead.His team look solid but not scary. Theyre all lined behind him, no Plan B or deputy; they even come with a sprinter in Molano. Rivals will look to them to take on the race which could leave them tired towards the end.If hes here for the Giro, its worth asking how much does Pogaar want to win the Tour de France? The original plan was hed be all in to win his first Giro then see what happens in July. Now the talk is audibly of the Giro-Tour double so he might aim for more economy during the Giro but that remains to be seen, as we saw in Catalunya if hes able to win hell just go for it.If we can all see Pogaar winning, how might he do it? Smash the opening weekend and keep the maglia rosa to the end? His team would be on the ropes, it might be better to try and loan the race lead to a breakaway. Paradoxically the gentler route may be less tiring in totality but it this doesnt make it easy to build an impregnable lead going into the third week. So wait until late before delivering a knock-out in the third week? He might not be so far ahead to insure against a jours sans during the third week, his team could be tired by then too. He was dismantled in the 2022 Tour by Jumbo-Visma playing the old 1-2 and rival teams here have multiple options to play.The RivalsWho else is here to win? Many might think second is no bad result and if Im up there during the third week, who knows? and if so then theyll have in mind the last two years where the Giro has been decided right at the end.Amid a bloom of budding talents, Geraint Thomas, second last year after being overhauled on the penultimate day, is more like an old oak tree and assuming he stays upright hell celebrate his 38th birthday during the race. He should be a dependable rider for the Giro although his form in the recent Tour of the Alps though didnt look sparking; it wasnt last year either but he was playing catch-up after illness then and says hes more ready now. Third in the 2022 Tour de France, he seemed oblivious to the Pogaar-Vingegaard duel and can diesel around to a steady finish and the long time trials suit.Thymen Arensmen is another GC contender who was sixth here last year and can hope to improve on that but recent riding in Romandie didnt look special. Tobias Foss brings more options but is likely to be deployed as a helper. Crucially with Thomas and Arensman means Ineos start with options. Imagine Stage 16 with the Stelvio early in the stage and Ineos get to work and dismantle UAE to leave Pogaar exposed. Fanciful? Maybe but a scenario and having finished second last time Thomas is here for a result rather than a repeat and could be open to tactical risks.Bora-hansgrohe say they want to develop young talent but theyre happy to make big hires too and in comes Dani Martinez. Fifth in the 2021 Giro while jobbing as Bernals motivation coach, the challenge is to improve on this, the Colombian is more than capable based on past results but leadership with a new team, well well see. Hes due to ride the Tour de France as well and so can function as pest to Pogaar for the benefit of Primo Rogli. Florian Lipowitz starts his first grand tour after climbing with the best in Romandie, translating this into success in the Giro is a big ask but worth watching all the same as he is a rider on the up.Embed from Getty ImagesBen OConnor (Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale) has finished fourth in the Tour de France. He won a mountain stage from the breakaway that year to take time but kept hanging with the front group through the rest of the race and has learned plenty and improved since, hes now surprisingly good in time trials. Hes an aggressive rider who can get restless in the front group and this is enjoyable to watch but it can cost him too. Theres a brittle feeling to his challenge, very strong in one week races for the podium but a Ming vase contender in a grand tour where one slip in the next three weeks could see the challenge shattered. Hes bolstered by a strong team for the mountains with Aurlien Paret-Peintre capable of a decent overall result too.Embed from Getty ImagesRomain Bardet (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) looks in great form after Lige-Bastogne-Lige. His challenge is the time trial stages, 70km looks prohibitive for the podium. Put Pogaar aside and if he loses two seconds per kilometre to rival GC riders thats a handicap of over two minutes to make up in the mountains. He can still climb to a high GC finish and if he wins a stage along the way he can complete the set of a victory in all three grand tours.Luke Plapp (Jayco) is the antithesis to Bardet, a strong time trial rider who maybe prone to losing time in the mountains. Aggressive in Paris-Nice and Romandie, hes shown he can climb with the best at times but doing this after multiple climbs and late into three weeks of racing is the new test, in Romandie he found the stage with more than one mountain pass harder. The course suits but this Giro is journey rather than make-or-break. Eddie Dunbar was a revelation last year, fourth on GC in the final week before sliding to seventh but this year his form isnt so convincing and he wont like all the time trials.Visma-Lease A Bike have had a rotten April but Olav Kooij has been delivering sprint wins and his presence can take some pressure of Cian Uijtdebroeks who still goes in as the teams GC contender. Eighth after a promising Vuelta, the 21 year old is going to be interesting to follow this month to see how he performs but is a project rather than a finished product, an undergraduate under the tutelage of Professor Gesink. Look to see how he fares in the high mountains and time trials alike.Embed from Getty ImagesAntonio Tiberi (Bahrain) has long been tipped as a talent for the future, in their Segafredo years Trek nurtured him only for him to slay a government ministers cat with an air rifle which in cost him his job, an incident so far more remarkable than his palmars. Hes out to change this and can climb and time trial well. Having finished third in the recent Tour of the Alps the form is there and starts his first Giro with high hopes after banking two editions of the Vuelta. Theres little pressure, this weeks editions of La Gazzetta Dello Sport contain more references to Marco Pantani than him. From the Lazio region, the 22 year old is surely Italys best hope too although veteran team mate Damiano Caruso has been second and fourth in the last two years, largely by racing his own race.Nairo Quintana (Movistar) is a previous winner a decade ago. Two years ago his results were waning and his return to the World Tour this year has seen him nursing a ligament injury and chasing stage wins.Juan Pedro Lpez (Lidl-Trek) had a great Tour of the Alps, winning the race by matching everything his rivals could throw at him during each mountain stage. But this shows he wasnt saving energy for the Giro and how to win here with 70km of time trials? If hes a form pick its for a mountain stage maybe and a top-10 and one of several contenders for the mountains competition.Tadej PogaarOConnor, Thomas, Arensman, MartinezThe post Giro dItalia Preview first appeared on The Inner Ring.