Tadej Pogaar is the big favourite to win. What if the weather was harder to forecast? Cold, wet and wintry conditions are due for the run down to Lige with the chance of snow. If so then just last Wednesdays Flche Wallonne this could change plenty and wardrobe choices and upcoming goals can weigh on the results as much as form.The Route: 254.5km and 4,000m of vertical gain, as much as a mountain stage in a grand tour so if the y-axis doesnt look severe it does add up by the end. The route isnt identical to last year because the run to Bastogne is different but once the turn back is made the route is the same to the finish.The route is familiar with the unrelenting procession of climbs where its one every few kilometres. Most of these are 1-2km at typically 10% but theyre irregular and make riders pay for being in a bad position. This in turn makes the descents risky, most are not too technical but riders jostle for position ahead of the next climb making for little recovery time.Last year saw novelty where La Redoute was chased by an extra unmarked climb. Its back again. So we have the same approach to La Redoute and the steep open climb as usual, 2km at close to 9%. But unlike past years were there was a left turn at the top, a false flat where Evenepoel launched in 2023 and the descent to Sprimont, here the race turns right. It goes over to Hotchamps and theres more climbing, 1km at 5.5% with a middle section at 7%, this is where Evenepoel rode Tom Pidcock off his wheel. Then comes an exposed section and then comes the Cte des Forges, added back this year, a steady on a wide road but more vertical gain and then a fast descent to the Ourthe valley.The Cte de La Roche-aux-Faucons is next, first used in 2008 but very selective and now a staple. Listed as 1.5km at 10%, this is hard enough but after a brief descent of a few seconds it starts rising again to the village of Boncelles and this second section is 1.6km long with a gradient of 5.5% which isnt steep but with all the climbing before, both cumulatively in the day and the sharp effort just before, its a difficult moment and where the winning move often forms and those beaten cant or wont chase. You can see this second part of the climb on the profile below. As the final climb its the make-or-break moment for many.The Finish: its hard to close any gaps over the top of the climb and down the tricky descent into Lige, arguably the most scenic way to town as the woodland avoids views of the dilapidated steel works. The comes the flat quay road beside the river Meuse.The ContendersWhere will Tadej Pogaar attack? The simplest scenario is his UAE team set a tough pace on the climbs and then he picks his moment to launch and nobody can follow. La Redoute? The Roche-aux-Faucons? Victory isnt inevitable see last year where he crashed out and ruined his summer but a triumph does feel like the most likely outcome, and by a long way. If anything the weather is a serious factor and for him and everyone else, a potential rival so hes only a four-chaining pick below. He can outclimb riders and if anyone does arrive in Lige with him he can smoke them in a sprint. Marc Hirschi is in good form and can be a second card to play from a team that is strong but not intimidating.Tom Pidcock (Ineos) was the second pick last year after Evenepoel and is as convincing today. Hes good on the punchy climbs, in form and we saw him win the Amstel thanks to his sprint. How to beat Pogaar though? He and Ineos can let UAE do the work all day and try to exploit this and hope for a crafty sprint. Egan Bernal as one to watch too.Mathias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) was last seen shivering after quitting the Flche Wallonne. Suitably defrosted hes good for a course like this but faces tough conditions again. Even if he can float over the climbs, his sprint isnt reassuring especially compared to some of the rivals he has got.Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) has the sprint, its just being able to wield it for the win. Was the Amstel an off day? He says the batteries are recharged but 4,000m is a lot to ask, he can handle separate five minute uphill efforts but hauling his musculature as they say in French over the climbs will take its toll. Sixth here in the past suggests he can be close but to better this hed need some way of neutralising attacks on the Roche-aux-Faucons and his team dont look set to ride tempo this late into the finish. Hes a contender still and if he did win itll be fascinating to see how.Flche Wallonne winner Stephen Williams (IPT) made the Mur look easy, picking his moment and surging away. Lige is a different race but hell be in the mix and is aggressive.Kvin Vauquelin (Arka-B&B Hotels) is having a good spring and was recently second in the Flche Wallonne. He doesnt have a podcast but think of him as a French Geraint Thomas, a time trial rider who can climb, a versatile no-nonsense rider to point in the direction of a finish line.Continuing the podium from Huy brings us to Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny) who is the archetypal Ardennes rider and coped with the cold, hes got a fast finish but would prefer an uphill sprint.Tough conditions suit Tiesj Benoot (Visma-LAB) but as ever its hard for him to win a sprint, hes apparently the rider without a win but the most World Tour top-10s since 2019, as in he can place but its hard to see him winningSimon Yates (Jayco) has only ridden this twice and never shone, hes had other goals but still this ought to suit. Team mate Filippo Zana is coming into form for the Giro and makes his debut.Bahrain fly in from a strong Tour of the Alps with past winner in the snow Wout Poels but he won in the uphill finish, the flat finish isnt as ideal. Santiago Buitrago and Antonio Tiberi join, with Buitrago a podium finisher last year.Ben Healy was a revelation a year ago; he was a worker a week ago when pulling what was left in the peloton for his EF team. Likewise Richard Carapaz but both can play their own cards here and Healy especially is wildcard if he can get clear before others like Pogaar go.David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) quit the Flche Wallonne but normally handles cold conditions better, or perhaps he just doesnt like the heat and while hes worked at being a GC contender hes suited to relatively shorter climbs like this, its helped on get on the podium here before. Romain Grgoire is worth watching too.Romain Bardet (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) comes of a strong Tour of the Alps to a race that hes thrived in but as ever his win rate is low so he can feature and has the experience hell start for the tenth time tomorrow and has three top-10s but a win would be a surprise.PogaarPidcock, Skjelmose, Williams, Hirschi, HealyGaudu, Carapaz, Vauquelin, Buitrago, Van GilsWeather: updated Sunday morning very cold with wet roads on the run to Bastogne and 4C. The temperature will go up a couple of degrees on the way back but all this wintry weather is being delivered by a northerly wind. So the riders face a headwind of 25km/h for the return leg which could gust to 50km/h.TV: host channel RTBF lists coverage of Lige-Bastogne-Lige bicyclette from midday CEST and the mens race live video should begin around 12.30pm on Eurosport or the channel you watch the Tour de France on. The series of climbs begins around 2.00pm, tune in from here on to see if Pogaar attacks from afar although its more likely he lets his team soften up the field first. The finish is forecast for 4.30pm CEST.Womens Lige: its Bastogne to Lige and the novelty this year is the mens race has been brought forward so the women can finish at 5.50pm CEST, a double bonus as they no longer have the early start in the cold and they should enjoy enhanced TV ratings. This blogs preview is the Flche Wallonne podium but with Vollering on the top step and for a more informed and fuller preview, click for ProCyclingUKs version.The post Lige-Bastogne-Lige Preview first appeared on The Inner Ring.