France may be on the verge of a political crisis but the anticipated four-way battle between Tadej Pogaar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primo Rogli and Remco Evenepoel is on. The cards have been shuffled this season by fate but theyre all here.If you want all the route details and more from points scales to time cuts to prize pots and more, see inrng.com/tour.The expected scenario has been turned upside down. Tadej Pogaars decision to ride the Giro dItalia could be read at the time as a concession to Jonas Vingegaards superiority in the Tour, the plan was to win the Giro with its softened route and then come with a top-heavy UAE squad to see what was possible in July, to brandish the Trofeo Senza Fine as a triumph and, just in case, a consolatory excuse. Only after a pink passeggiata Pogaar is almost everyones pick and the bookmakers have him odds on. If he lacked rivals in May and comparisons were being made with the likes of Eddy Merckx there were also signs that he has progressed in areas, such as time trials, too.Can the double cost him? Yes. Racing is different today with riders aware that if they can take on enough carbohydrates then things dont fall apart like they used to. He wont be hitting his peak numbers come the third week, nobody does, but he ought to be more stale than most and this years route save the hardest for last. He announced yesterday hes just had Covid too, the virus is doing the rounds and while the general public isnt worried its establishing itself as an added, persistent risk factor alongside crashes and punctures. This isnt reassuring for his form but he sounds confident.UAE are a more imposing team, finally built to match the ambitions of their leader. Adam Yates made the podium a year ago and has just won the Tour de Suisse ahead of team mate Joo Almeida who makes his Tour debut, as do Juan Ayuso and Pavel Sivakov and all could lead other teams. Everyone will be looking in case one starts to hint at this and how management prevents hubris. The backroom seems to have sharpened up but theyre still the team that thought a bike change was right for last years Combloux time trial.Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike) has the public profile of a nuclear submarine, as in he seems to surface once every few months. Normally he would have appeared in June but the heavy crash in the Tour of the Basque Country changed everything, a litany of musculoskeletal injuries. So instead of riding away with the Critrium du Dauphin and starting here as everyones pick hes much more of an unknown quantity. His team did not share his rehab much and hes said very little too. Hes a private guy and thats fine, but as a communications exercise it means rivals, the media and spectators are left guessing as to his form. The opening days will be an obvious fitness test culminating in the Galibier on Tuesday but potentially stressful skills test for someone who has not raced in the bunch for months.The team have long said they would only bring him if he was 100%. Pick your percentage as to his form today but if hes in top shape then hes not just a challenger to Pogaar, hes the two time Tour winner and so hes not in Firenze ifor the Michelangelo and Botticelli. Even if not at his best, his employers might need him anyway after a torrid season so far where you wonder if the music on the team bus is the blues If it wasnt for bad luck, I wouldnt have no luck at all and coming after an off-season where they staved off a rescue merger because of a sponsorship crisis.Fortunes and form can change, see the Vuelta last year when he came in undercooked but got better and better so if hes down in the coming days hes far from out and can hold on for the third week. Unlike UAE, the team is not composed of first picks but still very strong and should be a force in the race, particularly if they can get to defend the yellow jersey. Matteo Jorgenson has been excellent and consistent this season and so has a crucial role but in the teams word he is a protected rider but not here to win.Primo Rogli is back to winning ways having won the Critrium du Dauphin. If the headline was a win, the subheading was he was dropped on the final mountain stage and saved the overall by seconds aided by time bonuses; but if you want to read an article itd have to mention that he was climbing very fast despite being sore from a crash.Hes been so good at picking off stage wins and the time bonuses but can he hang with the likes of Pogaar and Vingegaard and pick them off for the stage win? Hes done it before but hes 34 and to win outright would make him the oldest winner post-war winner of the race, surpassing Cadel Evans by a few months.His Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team to use the full name which wont last long are very solid with Aleksandr Vlasov and Jai Hindley as lead support in the mountains. If he was a trump card then hed win with uphill sprint but tendency to crash would be his weak point although this years race should be much less stressful after just a couple of days and this added space might help. Would he sign for a podium today? Probably not, the stoic Slovenian has done it before but the paradox is that his best shot at winning is probably not gambling but hoping he can get past a tiring Pogaar and a faltering Vingegaard.Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) rides his first Tour de France aged 24. Its been a long time coming, a spaceship trajectory where he has been around the orbit of the Vuelta and then Giro in order to pick up the momentum needed for this mission to France. Belgium expects, but at the same time ought to know that finding a way past both Pogaar and Vingegaard is a tall order. He has said a top-5 is the goal as a way to anchor expectations.For all the long-term planning hes had short-term hiccups. A faller in the Basque Country too, his rehab has seen him back racing in the Dauphin where he took a time trial win but when the race went to the Alps he was dropped day. Look closely though and he did not implode. His team manager has said out loud what others could see in that he had weight to lose and if hes managed to address this he can be right in the mix. Only since then hes been ill and missed the Belgian championships.Hell like the two time trials but the first is only 25km, shorter than the Dauphin stage he won recently, and so he cant pull out a big lead. The team are all in behind him, no room for lightning legs Tim Merlier but theyre unlikely to get the peloton under their yoke, the test is whether they can be there in the mountains if he is dropped.One definition of a catalyst is any substance that increases the rate of a reaction without itself being consumed and this brings us to Ineos. Several times this season theyve ridden in their line formation during a mountain stage and brought back the breakaway, but without a leader capable of winning theyve acted as agents for the likes of UAE and others who have won after their work. We might well see the same again as they aim to place Carlos Rodrguez on the podium. Fourth overall last year until he crashed on the final mountain stage, hes improved since although repeating is no easy task. The form is improving, the Spaniard won the final stage of the Dauphin and if this was possibly part of a deal, he had to be up the road with Jorgenson to negotiate.Egan Bernal continues to make his way back after crashing two and half years ago now and can ride to a high finish as well but also roll up his sleeves to help the team. A year ago the story was Tom Pidcock was learning valuable lessons about riding for GC but interviews and Netflix appearance since have suggested biding his time with controlled efforts was against his nature so were more likely to see him on the move for stage wins, starting with Saturday. Geraint Thomas is also doing the Giro-Tour double but in his own words hes there for the team but he is dependable.Simon Yates (Jayco-Al Ula) was fourth last year and is back for more. Hes on a team with sprint and stage-hunting abilities but hes not resource-intensive, often happy to fend for himself. But how to win? Unlikely but he can be up with the best and eye the third spot on the podium.Richard Carapaz (EF Education-Easypost) has stood on the podium and even been a contender for the overall win. Now hes likely to be stage hunting. Still the course suits for a high GC finish for the Ecuadorian who can be a tricky customer to bring back if he can slip away. Short term form is an issue after exiting the Tour de Suisse after a crash.So much for teenagers bursting on the scene, just short of turning 27 Ottawan ornithologist Derek Gee (IPT) makes his Tour debut. He was the revelation of the Dauphin with a stage win, sixth in the time trial and no worse than fifth on the three Alpine stages on his way to a podium finish. Now what? The Gee-Cee for as long as he can but the teams big goal is a stage win. He is getting comparisons to fellow G as in Thomas as the ex-track rider now turning to grand tour racing but hes a little more heavyset and this could cost him with the repeat climbs, especially if its hot.Kvin Vauquelin (Arka-Samsic) is also worth watching as a prospect for the future, he makes his Tour debut aged 23 and his also a little reminiscent of Thomas. His team say hes here as an apprentice with no concern for the GC and with carte blanche for some stages so adjust your fantasy team accordingly or not.Eighth last year and the winner of the Col de la Loze Courchevel stage, can Felix Gall prolong Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiales annus mirabilis with a better GC finish? Thats a tough ask with the competition and the two time trials. Indeed landing a mountain stage win wont be easy either as he doesnt pack much of a sprint, itll require a reculer pour mieux sauter moment where he loses a bit of time to get more space.Jack Haig and Santiago Buitrago (pictured) offer two different styles of racing, Haig as a smooth diesel and Buitrago as a darting climber who is a Tour novice but with two Giro stages to his name. Bahrain come with a strong team but are stage-hunting too.Enric Mas (Movistar) crashed out on the opening day last year and in recent years the Tour has looked like a warm-up for the Vuelta. At his best he can be a punchy rider but its hard to see how he gets ahead of everyone.Alexey Lutsenko (Astana) can supply his team with a second story. It was only the Giro dAbruzzo but outrode the UAE team that day and hes been top-10 twice here before. That looks harder now, especially as Abruzzo aside hes not finished Paris-Nice, Romandie, the Giro and was a discreet 65th in Suisse.Two podium finishes in his career but Romain Bardet (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) is after different things these days in his valedictory Tour but is out to race rather than wave goodbye.Finishing second to Pogaar and ahead of Vingegaard on the road to Nice? David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) has done it before but this was Paris-Nice in 2023 of course. Fourth in the Tour in 2022 too, but how to repeat? Theres an article to be written about whether hes really a GC contender and hes arguably best on shorter 10-20 minute climbs, his challenge is longer climbs and in the heat. Enfant terrible Lenny Martinez starts and he can do a decent time trial for his build but probably he and the team would sign for a stage win above a top-10.Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) can appear on the GC thanks to his snakes-and-ladders racing, losing time in a direct contest with the GC contenders in a summit finish or time trial but climbing back up via the breakaways but with two time trials cracking the top-10 is a tough mission.Oscar Onley (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) makes his Tour debut aged 21 and hes shown he can climb with the best at times, as a 19 year old he made a name for himself giving Vingegaard a hard time in the late season Tour of Croatia but the Tour is more than a step up, its a rockface to scale so if hes just finished a creditable eighth in the Tour de Suisse in a denser field and across three weeks cracking the top-10 is a big ask.Tadej PogaarJonas VingegaardRogli, EvenepoelC Rodriguez, A YatesThe post Tour de France Preview first appeared on The Inner Ring.