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The Green Jersey Contenders
A look at the points competition in the Tour de France, the contenders for the green jersey and a wider preview of the sprinters.Learn to countPoints are awarded at the finish line and at one intermediate point in the stage:Flat stages (Stages 2,3,5,6,8,9,10,12,13,16) 50-30-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3 and 2 points for the first 15 ridersHilly finish / Medium mountain stages (Stages 1,11,17,18): 30-25-22-19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6- 5-4-3-2 pointsMountain Stages + individual TT (Stages 4,7,14,15,19,20,21) : 20-17-15-13-11- 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 pointsIntermediate sprints: 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 pointsAs said here before the pedant knows its not the sprinters jersey, its the points competition but the expert knows the flatter stages offer more points.The past two winners of the competition are Wout van Aert and Jasper Philipsen. They make for instructive case studies. Philipsen won four stages last year which delivered him 200 points and placing on further days helped him score more, his winning streak meant the jersey followed as a consequence.In 2022 Van Aert took three stage wins, one solo, one uphill sprint and a time trial and placed in some of the sprint stages, he built a commanding lead across the three weeks and was scoring on days when the pure sprinters were not.These two techniques need not be exclusive paths. The dream scenario is the jersey changing shoulders regularly with every sprint and intermediate sprint contested.This years route serves up more sprint finishes than last so it suits a pure sprinter even more than a baroudeur. Also the placing of the intermediate sprints tends to suits a pure sprinter, there are only a handful of stages where it is placed after a hard climb so the sprinters teams can hope to filter the breakaway most days and control who gets to contest the intermediate sprint.Also talking of mountain stages, the old maxim of to finish first, first finish as the Tour has tight time cuts and this is a mountainous edition with days that could see sprinters lose beaucoup time early. The commissaires can reinstate riders in exceptional circumstances but if this happens they forfeit all of the points earned so far so adieu the green jersey.Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) won green last year and four stages. At first glance he doesnt look like such an easy pick for a repeat because hes been beaten in sprints recently, whether the Belgium championships or the Belgium Tour but this happened last year too. Philipsen is more than a dragster sprinter as he can handle short climbs that other sprinters cannot and hes now going to have Mathieu van der Poel as a leadout man who supplies a ferocious finish. Van der Poel could be crucial here as there days when he could have won for himself last year, like Limoges where Pedersen won, but he helped Philipsen try to win and place instead. Will this happen again? The Dutchman has an eye on Olympics just as he did the Worlds last year.Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) has the potential to win but does he have the freedom? He can win days when other sprinters cannot and even harvest points from the time trials. Yet he could be on team duty for Jonas Vingegaard if the Dane is in the mix for the overall win which ought to be the case. With the team weakened by injury and illness hes no longer a joker card but crucial in support. Plus his goal is the Olympics and just as he left the race last year to attend the birth of his child, he could have plans to leave here as well or at least back off the racing.Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) isnt a sprinter but he won a stage of the Dauphin and many other bunch sprints and hes got the versatility to win more. Hell find faster riders ahead of him here for the flat finishes and his comparative advantage comes in an uphill sprint but there are few of these, only really Stage 8 to Colombey so hell have to hustle and bustle for it in the bunch sprints and breakaways alike.Is Arnaud De Lie a sprinter? After a big crash in the Four Days of Dunkerque last year Lotto-Dstny have tried to take him away from the bunch sprints but its risk vs reward, no more tangling for points in 1.1 race but at the Tour de France? He needs a hillier, harder day and there are not many but hes sometimes so powerful he can win on the flat by brute force.Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco) is the form pick having just won the Dutch national championships but he hasnt won a top-level sprint for a while, take your pick between the 2023 UAE Tour before that the 2022 Tour de France. Team mate Michael Matthews is likely to be stage-hunting but can contribute while Luka Mezec is a solid leadoutFabio Jakobsen (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) was rivalling Jasper Philipsen for the title of best sprinter but hes a case study for the volatile hierarchy among the sprinters today. Adrift in Paris-Nice and the Giro alike but comes with a strong leadout with Bram Welten and Nils Eekhoff which shows the team are backing him.Not long ago Fernando Gavira (Movistar) was hot property among the sprinters, now hes making a name for himself by launching early and averaging 1-2 wins a season so a win at the Tour would be a big turn around. Movistar are points hunting but UCI ranking points, not the green ones and 8th on a stage is 40 points.Mark Cavendish (Astana) was the points winner in 2021 but all he wants is one more win to surpass Eddy Merckx as the rider with the most Tour stage win, Project 35. Of course if he gets into a winning streak then green follows but the central question here is whether he can get that first win. To achieve this he may sit out some intermediate sprints in order to boost his chances at the finish. Can he win a stage? Yes it is possible but the debate is whether it is probable. There six goes at a sprint finish where needs to find a way past the names cited already. The team are all in and have recruited sprint whisperer Michael Mrkv to boost the chances.Another sprinter who finds age just a number is Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X) although hes not won a World Tour sprint since 2020 when he took the opening stage of the Tour in Nice and works as a valuable leader for the team. Sren Wrenskjold is a great leadout rider who can win sprints but not quite at this level, likewise Jonas Abrahamsen.Intermarch-Wanty are struggling this season. Once upstarts whod try longshot breakaway moves, theyve sharpened their focus with the likes of Biniam Girmay but hes an infrequent winner who hasnt show the same form of the 2022 Giro when he was outsmarting Van der Poel. He can win bunch sprints and so can team mate Gerben Thijssen so itll be interesting to see how they ride although weve seen the team before happy to have multiple riders in the mix rather than back one.Once a green jersey winner, Sam Bennett is back to winning ways with Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale but he and the team would surely sign today for a stage win, as we saw recently its one thing to storm to wins in Dunkerque, another in the Dauphin. Likewise Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) who has been through some introspection lately about his career and goals and seems to have come out with more wins but how to land a stage here, it would probably be his crowning triumph, topping his recent Suisse stage win. Marijn van den Berg (EF Education-Easypost) is another versatile sprinter who can win on hard days but risks being swamped by faster sprinters as his team dont bring a big train in support. Arnaud Dmare (Arka-Samsic) was losing speed at Groupama-FDJ before his transfer last summer and his best result is a fifth place this year after illness spoilt his spring. Likewise for Pascal Ackermann (IPT) who has moved teams but hasnt won for a year now both are not easy picks for a stage win but will hope for an opening.As for Tadej Pogaar (UAE)? Hes good, but surely not that good? He was fourth in the points competition last year so he can be up there if no one sprinter wins multiple stages but the system is tilted to the sprinters so hed have to have a superb Tour just to be in the mix. Well get more into his chances soonThe post The Green Jersey Contenders first appeared on The Inner Ring.
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