Why do surveys show strong public support for cycle paths, but Facebookers call it fake news? Leadership means pushing past the noise and over the Hill of Hysteria, says a leading mobility academic. The National Transport Authority has just published the latest findings of its Walking and Cycling Index for 2025 research which led The Irish Times to report that the vast majority of residents across the States five main cities want increased investment in cycling infrastructure, even when that results in less road space for cars. That and other news reports have led many on social media to cry foul!So, why is there such a difference between the vast majority of respondents in a representative survey and those on social media or the level of objectors we see to planned or built projects? The short answer is that there isnt that much of a difference. And to be clear here: The response in the NTA survey is replicated again and again, both nationally and internationally. Table showing percentage of respondents who support building more cycle paths physically separated from traffic and pedestrians, even when this would mean less room for other road traffic20252023% change (rounded)Dublin 71%72%-1%Cork73%69%+6%Limerick69%76%-10%Galway82%88%-7%Waterford86%76%+13%+/-3% is within the margin of errorPeople responded as above, even when this would mean less room for other road traffic.You could try to explain the decline in support in some areas by saying that the construction of major projects in Limerick and Galway has increased disruption and weakened support for cycling, but that does not really explain why support has shot up in Waterford and increased significantly in Cork or even stayed fairly stable in Dublin overall. Not much of a difference???But what do I mean by saying there isnt that much of a difference? For starters, people saying things on social media isnt a reflection of society at large most people dont actually comment on social media most of the time, people with stronger views on any given subject do. A second factor is that 14-31% of people can still make a lot of noise, even if they are not the majority. Even if an area around a cycle route has say 20,000 people, 20% of that is 4,000. Even if only a fraction of that again are motivated to respond to public consultation or even post a rant on Facebook, thats still a good chunk of people.Its worth remembering that councillors and TDs often act on issues after being contacted by just a few people. I literally mean a few or a couple of people. When elected reps are contacted by tens of people, its a major issue at that stage. In higher-density areas, like Dublin, you could have over 130,000 people living within 4km of a cycle route. Around 30% of that is a lot of people again, even if only a small percentage are motivated to write to their councillors, that can add up to a hell of a load of people.The Hill of HysteriaAfter conducting research into this area, said Dr Shane Timmons, a senior research officer with the ESRIs Behavioural Research Unit. Opposition to traffic policy changes is not unique to Ireland. However, in multiple countries, research finds that people become more positive about changes once they are implemented.Mobility academic Marco Te Brmmelstroet, who holds many titles, including professor in Urban Mobility Futures, academic director of Lab of Thought, and board member of Urban Cycling Institute, goes a bit further, referring to the Hill of Hysteria.IMAGE: From wbrassociation.org.uk.Support for people-oriented streets increases after implementation almost every time. Plans for change often meet loud noise. This feels overwhelming, but is not representative, wrote Te Brmmelstroet in a LinkedIn post published four days ago.He said: Our studies show how this is everywhere and all the time: fierce resistance to proposals to lower speeds, to change car parking into space for other goals, or to limit car access. It feels overwhelming. But its usually a loud minority, manifesting what we call the Hill of Hysteria, while the silent majority watches.But time and time again, we see that after implementation, the dynamic flips. The feared problems do not materialise. Streets function. Businesses adapt. And many people who first did not even engage with the idea now experience the benefits safety, cleaner air, livelier public space. Scepticism turns into support, he outlines.He points to an example in the Spanish city of Vitoria-Gasteiz, where a redesigned street was temporarily reverted to a car-centric layout.Once residents experienced both versions, the preference for the people-oriented street was clear. Pre-implementation outrage is not post-implementation reality. Leadership means pushing past the noise and over the Hill of Hysteria, said Te Brmmelstroet.We can see this in Ireland; once projects are given a chance to embed, its only a small percentage of people who keep ranting on about such projects. Few to no political voices advocate ripping out projects (with some exceptions to populists). The general public acceptance grows over time. Walking and Cycling Index for 2025You might want to have a look at the reports from your area. Theres more interisting finding, including that more than 1/2 respondents want to walk more, and 1 in 3 want to cycle and use public transport more. Read the full reports by area as follows:Dublin Metropolitan AreaCork Metropolitan AreaLimerick Shannon Metropolitan AreaGalway Metropolitan AreaWaterford Metropolitan AreaIMAGE: Minister of State Sen Canney TD with Dylan Mellody Kelly and Aoife Mannion, from the National Transport Authoritys Active Travel Office.
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